Enjoy the summer lull, because soon the sprint to Simchat Democracy will begin. Though the election is six months away, we can call the results now: the next Congress will have fewer Jewish members than the last. The number of Members of the Tribe on the Hill has been topsy-turvy the last few years. Nine members joined in 2006 and 2008 to reach a record high of 45, but eight left only two years later—four of the classes of 2006 and 2008 and two long-term Senators were defeated and two resigned. For the first time in years, Jews were less over-represented than Episcopalians.
There will be a minimum of ten fewer Jewish incumbents in the 113th Congress, a dramatic fall of 18 over two cycles. But unlike in 2010, the bulk of the 2012 losses are coming not from defeat, but resignation, redistricting, or runs for higher office.